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Whoa, Nellie. The ad economy is doing so well that it’s expected to slow ever so slightly as the end of the year nears, according to industry analyst Brian Wieser.
This year, the advertising industry—excluding political ad spend—is expected to grow 7.2%, totaling about $381 billion, according to a recent projection from Wieser, author of the Madison and Wall newsletter and a former GroupM economic analyst. In June, Wieser predicted that the ad market would grow 6.3%.
“The second half of 2024 should exhibit deceleration given prior year underlying growth rates of 7.5% and 10.6% during last year’s third and fourth quarters, respectively,” he wrote, though he added that “recognizing that multiple factors are responsible for recent conditions, we can’t point to any specific sources of deceleration in the second half of the year beyond the harder comparable.”
If it were to decelerate, it could be because advertisers are viewing the open web, hamstrung by quality and brand-safety concerns, with increasing skepticism, he wrote. If the economy keeps churning, he expects to credit that to the rise of retail media as well as a wave of “cross-border spending originating with overseas marketers, especially those based in China such as Temu and Shein.”
What do ad buyers have to say? Advertisers are expecting to spend more in 2024 than they previously expected to spend, at least according to an August survey published by the Interactive Advertising Bureau.
Advertisers told the IAB in August that they expect their 2024 ad spend to increase by nearly 12% year over year, up from a previous survey fielded in November 2023, when marketers said they expected their 2024 budgets to increase by 9.5%. Most of that spend will go to CTV, social media, and paid search, the survey found.