Cyclical events to boost 2026 ad spend, but recession, tariff concerns remain: IAB

The economy isn’t exactly humming along, but marketers in the US are set to keep spending.

US marketers are expected to spend 9.5% more in 2026 than in 2025, according to projections from the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB). The growth, which is projected through polling domestic buy-side ad investment decision-makers primarily at agencies and brands, is in part due to “major cyclical events” like the midterm elections, Winter Olympics, and the FIFA World Cup, but even excluding those events, growth still hovers between 7.1% and 7.8%.

Social media and CTV stand to grow the most among various channels, the IAB found, increasing 14.6% and 13.8% YoY, respectively. (The report did not break out total dollar figures.)

The bigger picture: According to Omnicom data cited in the report, the trifecta of cyclical events could bring in $9 billion in incremental spend. However, advertisers are facing some challenges that could inhibit growth, and there’s roughly a one-in-three chance that a domestic recession could hurt growth, the report read.

Marketers are also dealing with other challenges around cost. Growing customer acquisition costs contributed to a 10-point decline in the importance of new customer acquisition for marketers, as driving repeat purchases has grown as a priority. However, 54% of those polled still cited new customer acquisition as one of their top media investment goals for 2026, the report found.

Another concern is tariffs. Nine in 10 buyers said they are “concerned about the negative impact of tariffs on ad spend,” according to the report. However, the actual number of buyers who decreased ad spend in response to tariffs dropped from 45% to 30% YoY, as buyers invest in performance campaigns and channels with more robust measurement capabilities.

With that said, tariffs could also put additional pressure on marketing if consumers are holding back.

“Buyers anticipate that as consumers pay more for essentials, they will cut back on discretionary services like subscriptions and investments, forcing these sectors to fight harder for share of wallet,” the report found.

Tech-savvy: Brands are still augmenting their marketing strategies in a rapidly shifting technological landscape. Generative AI applications in media campaigns and “optimizing content for AI-generated answers” are top of mind for marketers, with 78% and 73% of respondents, respectively, listing them as areas of increased focus.

The report also noted that marketers are brushing up their chops in agentic AI. Of those surveyed, 66% said they’re focusing on agentic AI for ad buying and campaign execution amid a growing focus on cross-platform measurement (72% in 2026 versus 64% last year).

A key media investment challenge for marketers, noted by 44% of those polled, is reconfiguring marketing strategies around consumer journeys that are increasingly shaped by AI through social-first and AI-driven searches, and about 40% of those surveyed listed the need to understand agentic AI’s use in campaign execution and ad buying as a challenge.

When it comes to actual deployment, most marketers said they are keen to use agentic AI for tasks like performance analysis and outcome insights (93%) and creative testing, selection, or optimization (91%). When it comes to actual execution, only some were likely to use agentic AI for programmatic (57%) and direct I/O deal execution and negotiations (45%).

Shop smart? Agentic AI shopping could feed into commerce media growth, which is expected to increase 12.1% in 2026. That’s almost 30% faster growth than the rest of the ad market, the report noted.

Commerce media isn’t the only growing ad type with marketers. Shoppable ads are increasingly a priority too, with 45% of marketers indicating that they expect to focus more on them this year (compared to 38% last year.) Cohort-based ads, which target groups of people based on similar characteristics rather than targeting by individual profiles, were another focus area, with 35% of those surveyed indicating they were focused on the ad format, compared to 23% last year. Finally, creator partnerships are more of a priority than ever: 57% of marketers indicate they plan to focus more on creator partnerships this year, compared to 48% last year.

“Via creator partnerships, brands are prioritizing trusted, human storytelling that rises above the flood of AI content,” the report read.